On Wemby, James Harden, and Brook Lopez
Count me among the many who are in disbelief over what they’re seeing already from San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama. Even before his 38-point explosion against the San Antonio Spurs this past week, Rockets fans got an up close look at Wemby’s impact in the early-season overtime loss wherein the giant had his fingerprints upon every aspect of crunch time. Victor is inevitable. Apart from the rim protection, I didn’t think any of this would translate over so quickly, much less immediately. But it has, and now we have to deal with it, for the next decade.
In conjunction with Alperen Sengun’s impressive start to the season (posting essentially the 20-10-5 line we all knew he was capable of producing even as early as last season), the main thought I’ve been having the past week is that had the fate of the Rockets’ ping pong balls been more favorable, the two big men would have dominated the league together. Wembanyama would have been the extreme version of the rim protecting, floor spacing, rim running threat Houston needs to complement Sengun’s interior wizardry. This is obviously an absurd underselling given that Wembanyama is no mere “complement.” But the greater point is that the fit of the skillset pairing would have been utterly immaculate, in reality even moreso than I had originally imagined. Oh well.
This leads to the greater macro point that is far too nuanced for the cesspool otherwise known as “X”: I’m having serious doubts about the long term viability of the Sengun/Jabari Smith Jr. frontline pairing. This is not intended as an indictment upon either player but rather an assessment of what they, collectively, cannot do. To ever achieve entry into the league’s upper echelon, the Rockets are going to need some form of high level rim protection and deterrence, something that neither player currently can or in the future projects to provide, given physical limitations. Between the two players, Smith projects to be the better overall defender (a projection we have yet to actually see translate to the NBA level apart from a few glimpses), which is probably why the Rockets’ front office’s preferred route was probably to just move off of Sengun altogether and why they had no problem with Stephen Silas’s continued marginalization of Sengun last season.
The problem there is that as it stands, the offensive gap between the two players is not really even close. Sengun is currently a borderline All-Star in terms of production, whereas there is currently nothing Smith does at even an above average NBA level. To even enter the conversation or justify his starting spot upon the return of Tari Eason, Smith would have to deliver upon the pre-draft long distance shooting hype which earned him top prospect status and even then, the gap between him and Sengun would still be wide.
This is something to definitely keep an eye on as Rafael Stone attempts to construct this roster moving forward, both for the long term and in a season where the stakes are suddenly existent.
James Harden is underrated
Old friend James Harden made headlines this week with a press conference monologue in which he described himself as an offensive system, a statement which still, is very much true. The whole thing reaffirmed my belief that the Rockets—specifically Ime Udoka—made the right decision eschewing Harden’s interest in a reunion and turning their eyes towards veteran point guard Fred VanVleet.
I’ve already spilled enough digital ink on this front so I won’t belabor the point, but one thing I should mention is that Harden has suddenly become incredibly underrated. The constant drama and baggage has diverted attention away from the fact that Harden is still very much a top 5 playmaker in this league. I expect him to thrive with the Clippers (at least for this first season) and I commend the Clippers for not only being aggressive and pushing in their chips to make this obvious move, but having the presence of mind to realize that urgency was a necessity and that they needed to make this move sooner rather than later to allow themselves as much time as possible to get Harden acclimated. Of course, the fact that Philadelphia got off to as dominant of a start as it did could not have hurt matters much on that front.
It was heart-warming watching Harden and fellow former Houston Rocket Russell Westbrook embrace upon reuniting in the Clippers’ lockerroom upon Harden’s arrival, inasmuch of a way that one can find remembrance of the worst trade in franchise history to be be heart-warming.
Brook Lopez would have been the cherry on top
I’ve had mixed feelings from the start regarding the Rockets’ offseason pursuit of Brook Lopez and those have only been amplified by Sengun’s brilliant start to the season. Lopez would have filled almost every major current need of this Rockets team with his rim protection and floor spacing abilities, and also served as yet another valuable veteran voice in this lockerroom and a mentor for Sengun. We’ve already seen the impact VanVleet and Dillon Brooks have had as coaches on the floor for a young team in the process of attempting to undo ingrained bad habits.
But make no mistake: Lopez would have been coming here to start and play close to or over 30 minutes per game. One does not sign a player to a $60 million contract to do otherwise and one does not leave a sure-fire title contender to join a 20-win laughingstock to do otherwise. It was every intention of the Rockets’ front office to, yet again, bring Sengun off the bench this season and play him less than 30 minutes per game.
As it stands, Sengun is averaging 32.5 minutes per game, and is not only involved in some form in almost every possession of Udoka’s offense during which he is on the floor, but has emerged as the team’s crunchtime primary option. Yet again, Stone has been backed into Sengun, contrary to his desires and initial plans.
I’m torn here because the mentorship could have been immensely valuable and, similar to the VanVleet/Amen Thompson dynamic, Lopez’s hypothetical contract would have rolled off the books by the time Sengun’s rookie contract was ending; and of course, this team is desperately in need of rim protection if it hopes to be competitive this season.
That being said, I think that if Sengun is going to ultimately end up as Houston’s long term offensive focal point, it’s better that he’s getting the reps that he’s getting now, not only for his own development, but for the team’s as Udoka looks to find what works around him. It still feels surreal seeing Udoka go directly into Sengun in the post at stages of the game when he would have been languishing on the bench as the subject of Silas’ wrath. Will this last?