Miscellaneous topics for October 6
Danuel House extension
I've been lately wondering if Danuel House might have more trade value if traded following an extension rather than now, as a short term rental. As I've written in the past, undoubtedly, he would have value to a contender, assuming he can overcome the focus issues that have plagued him in his two postseason appearances thus far. He is a plus shooter, a plus defender with switchability, and can score in transition, a combination of traits that would make him attractive as a depth piece on most teams.
However, given his age, I wonder if a team might be more inclined to surrender draft capital in a trade if they could secure his services long term at a reasonable amount rather than settling for a rental. The first year salary in an extension could be up to 120% of House's current $3.9 million salary, or 120% of the estimated average salary, with raises in each year up to 8% of the first year salary. I think if House got off to a hot start, a deal coming out to $6 million or $7 million annually, over three years, would be good market value. However, the Rockets couldn't trade House for six months, unless they were planning on an extend-and-trade (and then they would be limited to 5% raises.) Something to consider if he gets off to a hot start.
Jeremy Lin
(Monday, 10/4/21, 9:10 PM): With all of the anticipation over tomorrow night's debut of the Rockets' backcourt of the future, I got to thinking of some of the other highly anticipated backcourt debuts in recent Rockets history. I can't help but remember how excited I was over the James Harden and Jeremy Lin pairing. That may seem hard to believe in hindsight, but it was expected to be something of a star pairing when first assembled. The Rockets had data on Lin's prowess in the pick and roll and at attacking the basket and we thought that paired with Harden, the two could really put serious pressure on opposing defenses. Of course, Lin underwhelmed and eventually lost his starting job to Patrick Beverley.
Eric Gordon and old age
I'm writing a piece right now for Chron.com on Eric Gordon and the age difference between him and his teammates hadn't truly hit me until now. He is turning 33 and almost 1/4 of his teammates are 19 years old. I can't imagine my 36-year-old self being around 19 year olds all day or how little they would appreciate my presence. But kudos to Gordon for being the consummate professional, as usual, and accepting every role asked of him since his acquisition by the team back in 2016. Now, he appears to be the starter at small forward.
Francis and Mobley and excitement
(Wednesday, 10/6/21, 7:21 AM): It's difficult to really articulate just how excited I was feeling at tip off on Tuesday night seeing Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green take the floor together for the first time. We haven't had a star backcourt pairing that young since the end of the 90s when Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley paired up, and even then, they were each a bit older than their modern day counterparts. I don't know what it is. I've always loved guards ever since I started watching basketball. That's probably not an uncommon sentiment. To have two of them that are both this young, and this talented, and already at this stage in the rebuilding really feels unbelievable. I've said before that I think Porter Jr. is a top-5 lottery talent. It really shouldn't be until year 3 of a rebuild to have two talents of this sort.
What Mobley and Francis shared with today's duo was a close friendship. Mobley didn't have Francis' pedigree (he was a second round pick), but he actually went on to have the better career between the two players. I actually thought that by 2003, when Jeff Van Gundy had arrived, that Mobley was the superior player. (Unlike Francis, he could defend and also score off the ball.) Francis needed to have the ball in his hands to be effective which limited his overall impact. That's sort of the same question I have about Porter Jr. - whether he can operate off the ball. He took the first step last night towards addressing those doubts by hitting multiple spot up 3s.
John Wall and Bradley Beal
(Wednesday, 10/6/21, 5:17 PM): I said a few months ago that I thought the best comp for the KPJ/Green backcourt was, ironically, John Wall and Bradley Beal. I got a bit of pushback on the Wall part of it, so I want to clarify. I don't mean that Porter has the same physical attributes as Wall in terms of blinding speed or athleticism (though they both are tall for their position), but rather that he is a ball-dominant type that looks to create off the dribble before anything else, just as Wall is/was. The hope though is that Porter is better at spotting up off the ball than Wall was. I remember reading a long piece at the height of the Wall/Beal era that pointed to Wall's inability to produce anything off the ball as a major problem, statistically, particularly as Beal continued to grow into a playmaker.
And just like Beal, Green's strength really is shooting and moving without the ball, though he has athleticism that Beal could only dream of having. Beal has developed into one of the most dangerous scorers in the league and had Wall not gotten injured, perhaps the pairing might have enjoyed greater success.
Beal came in at age 19 and averaged 13.9 points per game in his first year. He didn’t get up to 25 points per game until his age 25-season, at 25.6 points per game back in 2018-2019. He made the jump to 30.5 points the following year, and then up to 31.3 points per game last season.
I don’t know if Green will ever get up to 31.3 points per game, but I would be surprised if he didn’t average close to 20 points per game this year, as a rookie.