Expectations, large backcourts, and time travel
Annual expectations
Every year that I've been doing this, I've had a goal in mind for the team or a "burning question." For example, back in 2018-2019, the goal was simply to find a way to keep Chris Paul healthy so that his body wouldn't give out in the postseason. As we all know by now, he was available, but he wasn't in peak condition, at least not in the way that his vegan diet has allowed since his departure from the team. In 2019-2020, the goal of course was to figure out how Russell Westbrook and James Harden could co-exist once the playoffs rolled around. Of course, co-existing meant trading away the team’s center.
I think it’s obvious this year that the goal is to see what the team has with this young nucleus. Most importantly, does the Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green pairing provide hope of championship upside and cohesion? Which combinations between Christian Wood, Alperen Sengun, and Usman Garuba can work? Are either Jae’Sean Tate or K.J. Martin the future at small forward? It’s all why the John Wall news was such a blessing. Silas and Stone get to dive in immediately towards finding real answers to the most important question rather than needing to parse through noise involving heavy Wall usage. This entire rebuilding project, thus far, has been a long episode of incredible luck. There’s a world right now where the Rockets don’t have Porter Jr. or Green, and Wall and an injured Caris Levert are the projected starters for an expected 40-win team. Yuck.
Large backcourts
When I was a kid, my favorite backcourt in the league was Anfernee Hardaway and Nick Anderson of the Orlando Magic, and for no other reason than that they were tall. (Hardaway was 6'7, and Anderson was 6'6). Now, the Rockets have the tallest backcourt in the league with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. both officially listed at 6'6. I realize this really has nothing to do with anything and this paragraph is pretty meaningless.
Young Talent
One criticism I've seen become pretty common, in light of Rafael Stone's very impressive early track record in discovering young talent is that his predecessor, Daryl Morey, lacked those same chops. To be sure, the Rockets' roster was completely void of young talent in those latter years of Harden’s time. (Clint Capela really was the only homegrown prospect of the late Harden era.) But that reality isn’t fair as an indictment upon Morey.
It's easier to take shots on young players when your team has no expectations. And it’s also easier to get those young players reps when you’re headed towards the lottery. And in turn, when those young players get reps, on bad teams, they produce and perhaps look better than they would otherwise. For example, for as much hoopla as there has been surrounding guys like Armoni Brooks and Khyri Thomas, there’s no way either player even sniffs real playing time on Harden’s Rockets. And it’s debatable whether even Jae’Sean Tate, one of Houston’s most impressive players last season and the poster-boy of late for Stone’s scouting prowess, would crack the rotation on the contender Rockets. His outside shooting would be prohibitive. It’s important to keep perspective.
Carlos Correa Business Study
I'm curious if there has been a study done on the financial impact of letting a fan favorite walk. I'm sure there hasn't been because it seems pretty obvious that there wouldn't be any negative impact, assuming the team reinvests at least some of the resources saved from the departure.
For example, I think a lot of people might say "I'll never go to another Astros game if Jim Crane allows Carlos Correa walk," but we know that for that segment of the market, that won't actually happen. As long as the team is successful, the fans will get over it and continue supporting the team through their purchasing power, regardless of the names on the uniforms. And if the team isn’t successful, it’s a moot point anyways because revenues will undoubtedly dip.
It begs the question why anyone thinks Crane will loosen the purse strings to retain the hometown hero just for the fans. James Click can probably cobble together close to the same production at less than Correa’s asking price. This one will hurt though. Correa’s departure might cause me to cry. Like I’ve said, Correa’s probably the greatest “prospect” in Houston sports history, from start to finish.
Time Travel
One question I found myself asking myself the other night, and a sign that I spend far too much time thinking about this stuff, was if I could add any player from last year's Rockets team (other than Christian Wood) to the 2017-2018 team, who would it be? After giving this more thought than I thought I would, I realized it would probably be Sterling Brown.
The correct choice could possibly be John Wall. If that Rockets team has Wall, the obvious primary impact would be that Chris Paul isn't stretched into playing 38 minutes per game. And if he's not stretched into that heavy of a workload, perhaps the hamstring remains intact.
On the other hand, in a series as close as the one with Golden State was, it's possible that the Rockets needed Paul to play every minute that he did to be in the position that they were, up 3-2. Minutes for Wall and less minutes for Paul would mean more possessions used by an inferior player. It could also have lowered Harden's usage. (This is similar to the logic used in defending the lack of player and ball movement in Houston's offense in those years - lesser players wasting possessions is an inefficiency.)
Brown would have given the team another wing defender to give Trevor Ariza a breather and replace Luc Mbah a Moute after he was lost due to injury. And his shooting would have allowed him to stay on the floor. I actually can't believe Brown signed with the Mavericks at the price he did. How is he still a bargain?