Ben Simmons, tracking data, and T-Mac
Ben Simmons?
(Saturday, 9/25/21, 6:59 AM): Much of the discussion this week has centered around the “availability” of 76ers superstar(?) guard(?) Ben Simmons who vowed, apparently, to never play another game for the organization. (Yes, it escalated fast.) It was “reported” by a non-Rockets/76ers writer that the Rockets had interest in a John Wall swap for Simmons and awayyy we went.
I shared my thoughts on the topic throughout the week, but I think it’s important to expound over long-form. To not give appropriate acknowledgment of Simmons’ abilities would be disingenuous. He is one of the most otherworldly versatile basketball players alive. He is a point guard in a power forward’s body and can guard every position spanning and including those two. He is also terrified of shooting a basketball and the lasting image etched in my mind associated with his name is the open layup (wide open) he passed up in the closing minutes of a deciding playoff game last season. That aversion to doing the one thing necessary to score the basketball into the basketball hoop (i.e. shoot it) is a problem for a team with any higher aspirations.
The one part of the opportunity cost analysis that I think isn’t being factored in enough is the impact on the Rockets’ 2022 draft pick. After the amazing Russell Westbrook trade, a stroke of genius that allowed the Rockets to unload one of the greatest point guards of all-time at the bargain basement cost of just two draft picks and two pick swaps, in the near term, Houston is left with just 2022 and 2023 as the drafts over which it exercises full control of its own destiny. Those are really the team’s last chances to add another major piece to the nucleus. And adding Simmons would jeopardize that entirely because while he caps the team’s ceiling, he also would make it a lot better in the short term.
Perhaps you would be okay with a nucleus of Simmons/Wood/Green/KPJ as the foundation of this franchise. There is merit to that argument. But it should be recognized that there is an organic route to a foundation with a potentially higher ceiling. Like, Stone could just do nothing and end up in a really good place.
Variance on Porter Jr.
There is no player on the Rockets’ roster about whom there is greater variance in public perception than Kevin Porter Jr., (except perhaps Kenyon Martin Jr. because he is a hidden gem and only diehards in Houston even know he exists.). I always end up scratching my head upon encountering discussion of Porter Jr.’s merits as a top prospect and future building block. The argument goes that he’s too poor of a defender and/or too inefficient of a shooter to be taken seriously which is really a preposterous strawman because I don’t think anyone has him penciled in as a sure-fire All-Star. What I am simply saying is that he’s a building block prospect, just like any other top lottery pick oozing with talent would be considered. How is that at all subject for debate? That he scored 50 points and dished out 10 assists against one of the best defenders in the NBA in Jrue Holiday is at the least indicia of something. How are people discounting that as if it means nothing?
Could he flop? Of course. Any prospect can flop. But the fact that he’s an enticing prospect really shouldn’t be up for debate. He’s a top 5 lottery talent that Stone got for completely free.
Backcourt of the future
(Sunday, 9/26/21, 8:05 PM): I love what Rafael has done in assembling this backcourt thus far. In Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Dante Exum, and Josh Christopher, he’s put together a beautiful mix of offense and defense amongst four players 26 or younger. Porter Jr. and Green are both gifted offensively, obviously, and Exum really brings it defensively; Christopher’s offense is a question mark but he projects to be a positive defensively, at least if the eye test from summer league is accurate.
Like I said in the tweet, however, it would be a shocker if this is the backcourt rotation when the team eventually ascends to the postseason. That’s just because of the high flame-out right for young prospects. I’ve watched basketball for long enough to know to stay grounded about the long-term prospects of young players; I’ve seen enough players look promising for half a season and suddenly end up in like Europe the next year. Remember Rodrick Rhodes, the Jordan stopper? Remember Kobe’s generous praise about Jermaine Taylor? Of course you don’t. (Really, are you old enough to remember that Rodrick Rhodes was the untouchable Carrol Dawson refused to include in the Damon Stoudamire trade?)
Still, it’s fun rooting for youth, especially when there’s little to no expectations. Green was a top pick that literally descended into Stone’s lap from the heavens; Porter Jr. was free; and Exum is playing on one of the most risk-free contracts I’ve ever seen constructed. Just enjoy this for now.
Tracking for the season
Long-time readers recall my practice of tracking certain metrics week by week over the course of the season, over the past few seasons. The objective is to pinpoint certain trends, particularly as they relate to intra-squad player relationships and development. (As I’ve noted in the past, the most shocking observation I ever made while doing this was in 2016-2017 after Patrick Beverley returned from injury and dislodged Tyler Ennis from the rotation. The Rockets absolutely took off from that point leading me to postulate that replacing a terrible player with an above average one can sometimes be as impactful as replacing an average player with a supposed “star.”)
As recently as two weeks ago, I didn’t think there would be value in any tracking data this season because I assumed the rotations wouldn’t be an accurate indication of the foundation the team hopes to build upon. That was before the news broke that John Wall would not be suiting up. Now, really everything will have value. If Wall had played, the minutes he shared with Porter Jr. would need to be extracted and tossed aside as “noise”…we don’t really care what the latter produces when relegated to the role of a bystander. Instead, we’ll get to see real sample sizes of Porter Jr. and Green together and if there is any improvement from that pairing in defensive rating. We’ll get to see those two close games with Christian Wood! Everything has value! That’s why that Wall news was so huge. Everything is meaningful now.
McGrady vs. Harden
It’s interesting to me, in viewing the responses to this tweet, and also other discussion over the years regarding T-Mac, just how much the benefit of time can have a positive impact upon a player’s legacy and reputation. McGrady is revered now and held in much higher regard amongst Rockets fans than he was at the time upon his departure and at the very tail end of his stint with the team. He was really thought of as basically a loser. Harden’s legacy will experience the same effect as the years transpire. As they say, time heals all wounds.
McGrady definitely would have been better in this era than he was in his day, just from the benefit of better spacing and the freedom to shoot more 3s. But the notion that he was better than James Harden is ludicrous. Having watched both players through their primes, it’s not even really close, in my opinion. McGrady was more physically gifted. Harden was just better and more determined, unstoppable and fearless at getting to the basket. McGrady was really just a jumpshooter who hated contact, despite his breathtaking physical gifts.